As President John Pudner prepares for his tenure as Fox News Radio's official post-Election Day analyst, he finds himself in the unusual position of disagreeing strongly with Nate Silver, who asserted this week that early voting numbers are not a big factor. As covered in this interview, the opposite is true. Early voting numbers are very telling - the trick this year is they are telling us two different things.
For all the people who have accused me of being a homer for saying for three years I'd moved to Wisconsin and it would decide the 2024 presidential race - take a look. A betting market now lists Wisconsin as the only EVEN state, with both sides needing it to win the election if PA (which has had a huge number of first-time female voters vote early) goes to Harris.
The 3 most likely scenarios appear to be:
1. The initial surge in GOP early voting predicts Trump wins PA, WI, and MI and tops 300 electors for a big win, a scenario laid out in Thursday's Fox News interview.
2. The counter surge in women outvoting men early the last several days in a year with the largest gender gap in history flips all 3 back to Harris to guarantee her at least 276 and a win.
3. The less likely scenario is these three states that usually vote together split and Trump takes one of the three and has a narrow win. If PA and MI come in Harris and its all down to WI then I will be thinking about not being able to fund the distribution of those last 117,000 voter comparisons in Wisconsin - but those are the things that keep you up at night in this arena.
I will give the case the other side is making for Scenario 2 below, but first I will lay out my case that Scenario 1 is happening. If you look at actual early votes and ballots returned as of the morning of November 1, there are more women voting (54%) but that’s only 2 points higher than the population (52%). On the other hand, L2s data indicates that Republicans are disproportionately voting early (39% of early votes cast compared to only 32% of the general population, or +7) compared to Democratic ballots cast (40%) compared to the population (38%, or +2).
The reaction to my interview yesterday by three people who I've found accurate in the past IS THIS; THEY believe this account is accurate and that my prediction would have been accurate if this past Tuesday was election day but that Trump peaked early and the half-billion spent the past week to elect Kamala Harris will lead to and Obama-style quiet 2012 turnout and sweep of the three states.
The part on the campaign "panicking" can be said of every campaign in the final week - it's like both sides putting out news on how tired the opposing candidate is. Yes, in the final week of a campaign, every candidate is exhausted, yawning and having flubs and every staffer is exhausted and panicking. But the part on women's early vote surging is true and what some peers believe could shift next week from Scenario 1 to Scenario 2.
I made the case for the former on Toledo, Ohio's WSPD, wherein he analyzes the current state of the race as both President Trump and Vice President Harris, on the ground in swing states like Wisconsin on the same day, intensify their efforts as they enter the final stages of this election, with each candidate's strategy becoming a pivotal factor in shaping voter turnout and support. Voters across our Republic are not only faced with a choice on who they want to lead our Republic for the next four years, but also the direction our nation will take on key issues ranging from the economy to immigration, abortion, education, and beyond.
As Pudner and host Scott Sands take a final look at the current state of the race for both candidates, they highlight where the key swing states are trending, which major issues will win the day, and how both tickets could maneuver themselves as our Republic prepares for an Election Day unlike any other in our history. As Pudner restates what he had put in previous writing - the roadmap to a 312-226 electoral landslide is becoming quite possible for President Trump.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Wisconsin, Trump, Harris, Hovde, Baldwin, Brett Favre, impact, iconic, momentum
SPEAKERS
Scott Sands and TBOR Action President John Pudner
Scott Sands 00:00
Our buddy John Pudner is joining me now. He is with Take Back Our Republic Action, takebackaction.org, and John, it's always great to have you on.
John Pudner 00:08
Thanks for having me!
Scott Sands 00:09
I asked you on to help break down the numbers because I know you're like me, you're a numbers guy, and when we look at some of these polls, is Wisconsin a swing state? Could it flip red again?
John Pudner 00:18
Yes, it could, and the other thing that's happened is in some of the states that have both a Senate and Presidential in doubt, Wisconsin seems to be the dark horse as far as it's Senate election with Eric Hovde. He's now popped slightly ahead in a couple of polls, so now you've got a potential scenario where both Hovde and Trump could win, and that would be the big surprise of the night. It'll be like waiting on Ohio 20 years ago, right? May be waiting on Wisconsin this time around!
Scott Sands 00:47
Brett Favre, did he help make a difference in Wisconsin amongst Green Bay fans?
John Pudner 00:52
He did. It was a pretty rousing ovation for him. President Trump got there a little late because he had a second job of driving a garbage truck, so he had to do some pickups in Green Bay, and still got there just about on time, though, so we'll give him credit for that.
Scott Sands 01:06
It was absolutely brilliant to turn Joe Biden's comments calling Trump supporters garbage into a positive. Just another image I don't think any of us had on our 2024 bingo card this year. I was kind of talking about this in the beginning of the show- there are images that will be iconic as you look back on this campaign in the history books decades from now. The four pictures I think so many people will remember, and I had forgotten about the fourth one, the picture of Donald Trump standing up after his ear had been grazed by a bullet with his fist pumped in the air, him with an apron serving fries out of a drive-through window, now in a safety vest driving a garbage truck, and his booking photo when they took him into jail. Those are going to be the four images of Donald Trump that live on in history.
John Pudner 02:02
That's a great point. I did the same thing, asked which is the fourth, and was like, yeah, that's right. When you get to it, of course, those will be the four, you're right.
Scott Sands 02:11
We're talking to John Pudner, takebackaction.org. Look at the numbers for me and tell me what you're seeing in some of these polls that are coming out, which I think are showing a definite momentum swing in Donald Trump's favor and Republicans favor.
John Pudner 02:24
Definitely, and the first thing, just being an older guy who has watched this for years. It's amazing in today's world that a steady two-point swing is a huge swing. I just have to laugh thinking back to when Mike Dukakis went from being 20 points up, to then sitting in a tank, then being 10 points down. A disastrous Biden debate and Trump goes from even to two or three points up, but people are so locked in, you're fighting for so few. I just don't see how he loses Georgia, Arizona, or North Carolina. I mean, some people have pointed out a couple of North Carolina polls, but it's really hard to poll after a hurricane. As an example, believe it was a CNN poll, can't remember if it was for DeSantis or Scott, with them down 11 points after a hurricane, but they won. I really think the map, I just keep looking, he's got to just get one of the three Midwestern states on top of that. It's got to be either here, or Michigan, or Pennsylvania, and if Trump gets one of those three, he wins. I think he could take them all and Nevada, but he's got to get one, and if she sweeps the three, then she wins. That's the bottom line.
Scott Sands 03:32
It's interesting, because right now, especially with polling, if you look at the electoral math, Donald Trump has more paths to an electoral victory than she does. She's got to sweep the blue wall to win the Electoral College. Donald Trump only needs to flip one more state back to what he had in 2016 to be able to win. His odds are much better, but as we look at polling, and in my job, when I'm not playing the disc jockey in the afternoon, I'm also running a bunch of radio stations, and we do a ton of research, and sampling, and our ratings and music research is all based on call-out research. That's problem number one. Problem number two is, historically, Donald Trump has been underweighted by the pollsters. We saw this in 2016, we saw it in 2020, and now with these numbers, the only concern I have is maybe that the pollsters have adjusted their algorithms, and methodology, so much, that maybe they're potentially overwaiting Donald Trump in some of these states.
John Pudner 04:33
Could be, but it's amazing how they really didn't fix it between 2016 and 2020. I mean, I was more thinking that in 2020 and they really didn't. Even though the final result wasn't what he wanted, he was down eight in Wisconsin in those final polls, and it came down to 20,000 votes, and that was the most extreme. They don't seem to have gotten it right, they're within a point, but as you said, in a race like this, a couple of points can shift the outcome. I really do think the early vote is a better indicator. It's not that you can do an exact equation on it, but the shifts have been so dramatic through the seven states on how many more Republicans are voting early than did last time versus Democrats, and the left tries to say the right is just cannibalizing their voting early, except you can't lose a vote that way. That's what I try to tell people. The worst case is you come in exactly even, they all would've voted Election Day, but even die-hard voters, 20% of them miss Election Day because something comes up, so if nothing else, for every 10 who vote early, and their vote is there, it's banked, let's say eight of them were to vote Election Day, you're up two votes, you're up something. But, it's more just a trend. I mean, here in Wisconsin, the Democrats were outvoting Republicans early pretty substantially. It's 50/33 Republican right now. Even in Pennsylvania, a state where Philadelphia is such a machine, Democrats are 29% ahead on early vote, but they were 50% ahead in 2020. It's just the trend, it's not an exact formula, and if you have found a way to motivate your people logistically because they're fired up to vote early, then logically, you're going to have the same kind of advantage on Election day, and that's why I really feel confident on this one. I think it's gonna be a landslide of 1%, 2%, and 3% wins, but I think it could be an electoral landslide. 312 is very reasonable.
Scott Sands 06:38
I think the popular vote, obviously, and the individual state votes are going to be very close, but if Donald Trump takes all these states that are a toss-up right now, it will be an electoral landslide. I'm looking at the latest battleground states right now. Arizona, RealClearPolitics average has Trump +2.4, +0.9 in Nevada, Harris +0.2 in Wisconsin, +0.5 in Michigan, Trump +0.6 in Pennsylvania, +1.4 in North Carolina, and +2.6 in Georgia. I mean, he takes those states that he's ahead in, at least in these polls, he wins easily.
John Pudner 06:41
And the other thing is, in every state, the last month has moved toward Trump, as you alluded to at the beginning. I just usually find that continues. If you've got a month of steady movement, and I'm talking point, point and a half, two points in Wisconsin. If it's all moving in your direction, that often takes off the last few days, and it's really hard to poll this final weekend. Today was th last day of polls. I think it gets very inaccurate on the final weekend. But, if you have a trend now, I just don't see how she turns it around.
Scott Sands 07:51
I'm concerned in those numbers that, there's so much passion amongst the Trump base, that they are distorting the betting markets, they're distorting online polls. I mean, we kind of saw that with people using their money to support Donald Trump, and then Trump media, when that went public, catapulted before the shares just completely cratered. I mean, a lot of people lost money on that, a lot of people may have made money, but we saw that in the stock market, and the reaction to Trump media.
John Pudner 07:54
That is true, but that's why I get back to the early vote. I mean, those are actual ballots going in boxes, you can't fake that. We keep seeing how some of the aggressive transgender stuff has turned off Black males, for example, and then you see the Black early vote lower than it was in North Carolina last time, and for me, that's actual votes coming in. I agree completely, and that's why I lean more toward the early vote, I just think it's the one thing that's real. I don't care how enthusiastic a person is about Trump, they count as one person when they take that ballot in.
Scott Sands 09:07
And when you look at the momentum, you also look at the loss of momentum for Kamala Harris, even though it's not like Donald Trump is picking up a point every day in the battleground states. But, Kamala Harris is dropping by fractions of a percentage every day as well, further separating her from Donald Trump, at least in those RCP battleground states.
John Pudner 09:31
Agreed. I know we shouldn't count on memes, but I thought one of the funniest ones was Biden whispering in her ear the other day, saying during her speech on unity, I called half the country garbage. Wish I could be a fly on the wall for reaction to things like that. I think the ads are better on the right this time, and many times, I said the other. Sometimes liberals are very creative, but I just think they're on message on the right, and I've watched some of the LGBT response commercials to the ones hitting with Charlemagne the God, I think they're just bad ads. They're appealing to a very narrow group of people, kind of saying they're picking on us, we're going to get them back, that's what I'm seeing on TV, so targeting is not that good.
Scott Sands 10:22
Their only effective message, I believe, so far, has been on abortion. That's the only winning argument that they've been able to make.
John Pudner 10:29
Absolutely. In some polls, a quarter of the country still says they're voting purely on abortion, and that's the Pro-Choice side, not the Pro-Life side that I'm on. That is her one issue, but her other issue was supposed to be protecting democracy. We've had a couple of polls, but that's 50/50, and look, if you're going to try to throw your opponent in prison for a couple of years, it's kind of hard to keep making the argument you're the one defending democracy. I just think they've blown what seemed like an easy issue just because January 6th has visuals they can use, I'm just talking superficial. That was a slam dunk for them in 2022, it stopped working against but then, here we are again.
Scott Sands 11:19
John Pudner, takebackaction.org. Thank you for helping break it down and tell us all what we should be looking for in the last few days before the election.
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