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Alaska Top-Four Requires Murkowski to Reach 50%+ to Win

Updated: Jan 18, 2023

Turning attention to the last states to hold primaries, our NewsMax piece points out (on the lighter side) that PredictIt gives Congressional candidate Santa Claus a better chance to win his Alaska primary than it gives Liz Cheney to win in Wyoming on the same day (August 16).

On a more serious note to political observers, the Alaska Republican Party rejected Lisa Murkowski for the second time in 12 years. In 2010, we noted, Alaska Republicans “select(ed) Joe Miller to go on the ballot. All assumed this would end four decades of elected Murkowskis in Alaska …, but almost 40 percent of Alaskans took the time to write in Murkowski's name, making her the first U.S. Senate candidate to win by write-in since 1954.

So we know Murkowski can win under the old system. But she doesn't get to use that system. Then, she won with 39 percent of the vote; this year, November's winner will need to pass 50 when voters rank the Top-Four primary survivors, just like they did for Glenn Youngkin when he flipped Virginia red.”

The Top-Four system starts with an open primary on August 16, which will advance Murkowski, Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka and two other candidates to the general. While the 3rd and 4th place candidates in the poll in the graphic will be different, the results could be similar to Murkowski’s 2010 election. Only this time voters ultimately choose between the top two in an instant runoff in November, which a Cygnal poll indicates Murkowski could lose to Tshibaka (49% to 51% in this poll). Click here to read the entire NewsMax piece.

For more on TBORA's efforts on Final Five, please click here.


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