The 2024 elections in Alaska were particularly significant for the future of the Final Five/Top Four voting system. Despite early unfounded concerns about the system’s impact on Republican candidates, the results reaffirmed our contention that it may benefit conservative candidates. This year's election saw the re-election of Donald Trump, along with the victory of Nick Begich, Alaska’s first conservative member of Congress in over 50 years, in addition to voters choosing to keep the system.
Nick Begich's victory is especially telling. This win demonstrates how the Final Five system, which narrows down candidates to a manageable pool through traditional voting, allows voters for conservative spoilers to transfer their final vote to the Republican. It’s a win for conservatives in a state that for the last 50 years had only three Members of Congress – the most moderate Republican in the entire Congress and two Democrats.
Predicting Palin’s Loss 10 Years Ago to Bannon
A key question arising from the 2022 election was whether Sarah Palin’s loss was due to her high unfavorable ratings or because the system unfairly helped Democrats. The answer seems clear now: it was Palin’s own political baggage, not the voting system, that led to her defeat. As I’ve said during many speeches, a decade ago before I’d ever heard of Final Five voting and the night I became the only person in US History to win a Republican primary against a Majority Leader (Eric Cantor), I told Steve Bannon that Sarah Palin would never win another election after the negative reaction to her quitting and leaving Alaska after she ran with John McCain.
Wisconsin Final Five-ban Sponsors Lose
While Alaska voters voted to continue the Top Four system, Wisconsin’s experience showed that focusing on banning the almost identical Final Five system can backfire. In the 2024 elections, candidates who sponsored bills to ban the Final Five voting system lost Republican primaries as well as General Elections – the latter resulting in Republican Senators barely maintaining a majority by only a single vote in races that might have been won if they’d kept focused on the cost of groceries, gas, stopping fentanyl at the border and keeping men out of women’s sports that propelled Trump to victory.
Which Voting Reforms Designed to Help Liberals?
As we evaluate voting reforms, it's important to question one-by-one whether they are truly designed to make elections more fair or whether they are simply a tactic to help liberal candidates.
For example, I lay out the case in my latest NewsMax piece that the push to eliminate voter ID requirements combined with a national popular vote for presidential elections could tilt the playing field in favor of Democrats. In states without voter ID laws, illicit turnout can surge and thus make a much higher percentage of the population in those states being counted as votes compared to red states where voters must identify they are who they say they are.
Similarly, the shift in redistricting practices, particularly in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, has led to more districts favorable to Democrats, further consolidating liberal control in some regions. These gerrymandering efforts—enforced by the courts rather than legislatures in some states—led to Republicans being UNDER-REPRESENTED in Congress compared to the overall vote for the first time a couple of years ago.
Fair Reforms: Benefiting Both Parties
However, not all election reforms are designed to favor one party. Some reforms can enhance fairness without giving an advantage to either side. For instance, efforts to require organizations like ActBlue to verify credit card contributions could prevent financial mismanagement and fraud, benefiting both parties in the long run.
One notable reform that we supported and predicted would NOT hurt Republicans is the restoration of voting rights to nonviolent felons in Florida. This reform has proven to be fair and non-partisan, as it has led to a more reliable Republican stronghold in the state, with former felons who have turned their lives around often voting in line with conservative values.
Another encouraging development is the widespread support among Young Republican groups for conservative measures. They currently fight left-wing radical environmentalist pushes that would only send production to much dirtier polluted parts of the world, while finding logical anti-flooding and other conservation measures that will ultimately be demanded by younger voters in future elections.
The Final Five System: Helping Republicans?
In fact, evidence suggests that the Final Five system would have only impacted a few states in the 2020 and 2024 presidential races. In 2020, Trump’s loss in Georgia and Wisconsin was due to conservative votes being split by third-party candidates. With a Final Five system in place, those voters would have been able to cast a second-choice vote, possibly giving Trump the win in both states. Similarly, in 2024, the presence of third-party Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would have given Kamala Harris a 2-point win in Pennsylvania if he had stayed in the race. Under Final Five, voters would have been able to rank Kennedy as their first choice and Trump as their second, to give Trump the win. In the end, the same thing was accomplished by Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump.
Making Sure the System Works
Once the system is in place, it is perfectly legitimate for political parties to ensure that only one candidate from each major party is on the ballot. In Alaska, the Republican Party did this successfully, ensuring that only one Republican candidate appeared on the final ballot. Democrats should do the same to prevent vote-splitting within their own party.
Personally, I’d support refining the system by automatically designating the top vote-getter from each party with the "R" or "D" label, simplifying the process for voters. We never want to deny voters information in the voting booth, such as which name they are considering is supported by which party.
While no system is perfect, Alaska’s decision to maintain Final Five/Top Four is a positive development – the only voters who have used the system voted to keep it the same day they voted by double digits to elect Trump and to elect their first conservative member of Congress in more than 50 years.
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