How in the world is Ohio Democrat Tim Ryan tied with Republican JD Vance in a state Trump won by 8 points after Republican Glenn Youngkin just won in Virginia, where Trump lost by 10?
The first two polls show the race within 3 points, each with a different candidate leading.
As explained by TBAF's President in the Dayton Daily News, the reason is that Youngkin was nominated by a system similar to Final-Five that builds support around a candidate, while Vance was nominated by only 31% in the old negative primary system. Read the whole article here. For more on TBORA's efforts on Final Five, please click here.